NASCAR’s One Reason Why each of NASCAR’s Final Four will win or not win at Phoenix
By Roy J. Akers –www.skyviewsports.net
Avondale, Az. The final race of the season will crown one of four finalist drivers as this year’s CUP champion. This article will use stats to give a reason both pro and con, on what makes them the NASCAR Champion for 2025. The final prediction will use my observations from being credentialed for 15 CUP weekends, 60+ Zoomcasts talking to drivers and teams, along with media members and experts. Ultimately, the Champion will be deserving as they ALL deserve to be at the NASCAR Championship weekend in Phoenix.
One Reason Why each of NASCAR’s Final Four will win or not win at Phoenix: Kyle Larson
Will win: Larson has four top-ten finishes at Phoenix in his last seven races at the track and won the NASCAR Cup title in 2021. Larson has 21 top-ten’s this season and is second in the series leading laps behind William Byron, his teammate. Will not win: Larson has not won since Kansas in May, nearly six months ago. Chevy has NOT won a CUP title in the next-gen era.
- Q-Jeff Gordon praised you and your versatility and confidence behind the wheel. What does it mean to you to have someone you looked up to like that say so much about you? KYLE LARSON: Yeah, I mean, it’s really awesome to have a guy that I looked up to a lot as a child, and my career path followed his a lot.
- For him to always say nice things about me makes me feel good. Obviously, too, him being a big part of Hendrick Motorsports, he gets to see how William and I operate, kind of get a glimpse into us and what makes us who we are. Yeah, it’s cool. He’s always there, as well, if we ever need to bounce questions off.”
One Reason Why each of NASCAR’s Final Four will win or not win at Phoenix: Chase Briscoe
Why he will win: Chase Briscoe comes into final as the hottest driver in the Cup series, and this includes Denny Hamlin. He comes to Phoenix with the most playoff points among the four finalists, and he three 2025 playoff drivers. He leads CUP with seven poles this season and has finished in the Top-10 nearly 55-percent of the time. Why he will not be the Champion. Briscoe won the 2022 spring race, but has uneven finishes in nine races dating back to 2021. Briscoe’s average finish is 24.25 in his last four races at the track. He has the speed, but will it be enough?
Q- When did you feel like this was a championship-caliber team?
CHASE BRISCOE: Would I say there was a stretch around I want to say it was August, we ran second three weeks in a row. That was when I was like, Man, if we can keep doing this. At that point we still didn’t even feel close to our full potential. We were, like, running top five every race throughout the whole race, just getting finishes. Everything was just starting to click. Like I said, I felt like we weren’t even to our full potential yet. I felt like if we kept building that to the Playoffs, we were going to be in a really good spot. Throughout the Playoffs, I still don’t feel like we’re at 100% per se, but we’re way closer now than we were in August. I would say around that three-week stretch is where it was like there’s really potential here to make a run at that.”
One Reason Why each of NASCAR’s Final Four will win or not win at Phoenix: William Byron
Why Byron will be the 2025 Champion. Byron led the most laps among any driver this season, and his win last week in Martinsville was a must-win clutch performance. Byron started the season defending his 2024 Daytona 500 win and won the race a second time. Byron had 10 top-ten finishes in the seasons first 14 races before cooling off. He won at Iowa and at Martinsville to finish the regular season. At Phoenix, Byron has five top-six finishes in seven races, including finishing as the spring 2023 winner. Why Byron will not win? Phoenix is seen as a Ford track with Toyota, with the second-best manufacturer stats. Did WB use up all of his week in Virginia last week? After his strong start, Byron only has six top-tens the last 22 races in 2025 The reasons are pretty weak to root against him.
- Q- Speaking of past experiences, in ’23 you came here and won the pole, led laps… What did you learn from that experience? At some point in that race did you think you had it?
WILLIAM BYRON: In some ways, yeah. I thought the opportunity was there. I just think we’ve learned the hard way this year that it’s never over. I think that’s what sticks with me. I mean, honestly, until that guy throws the checkered flag, the race is not over. I’ve learned that, like I said, the hard way this year. That’s kind of fueled the way I prepare.”
One Reason Why each of NASCAR’s Final Four will win or not win at Phoenix How has Denny Hamlin changed as a person from previously?
Why Denny Hamlin will win his first championship? Six great reasons are for each of his six 2025 wins. Hamlin ran in the Top-ten in 17 of 34 2025 races and was a predictable non-factor in the Superspeedway and road course events. Hamlin’s year was extremely consistent. He spread his wins out starting in Martinsville in the spring and winning again the next week at Darlington. He finished his six race wins at LVMS. At Phoenix, Hamlin finished second in March. Why Hamlin will not win the CUP title in 2025? His Next Gen era races have uneven finishes with a 0-3-3-6 at Phoenix. Not the best closer at the track. Denny’s pit crew is not the best. They have cost him valuable race spots this year. Hamlin’s decision to run Bubba Wallace into the wall in the final lap at Kansas cost him a seventh race win. One of the dumbest things a veteran can do.
Q- Denny, what will be the difference for you this weekend?
DENNY HAMLIN: I would say overall just a lot looser. Certainly just living this week to week. I’ve said it quite a bit, but just trying to count wins. If you try to start the year and say, We’re going to win the championship, you got to work this thing backwards. It’s very hard to work this sport backwards from the result to the execution of the result.”
My Champion: Denny Hamlin
Still, Denny will beat your favorite driver. He is driving for his extremely ill father, and no matter how much longer he drives, this will be his best chance at a NASCAR Cup title. Denny takes it home.
William Byron will finish second
Chase Briscoe will finish third
Kyle Larson will finish fourth
Folks, it’s just a prediction. NASCAR will have a worthy champion any way this plays out.
