1. San Francisco 49ers
- Strength of schedule to date: 24
- Strength of schedule remaining: 3
- Projected win total: 11.1
- % chance of making the playoffs: 79.2%
- % chance of winning the division: 60.2%
- % chance of winning conference: 20.7%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 12.2%
Why the 49ers won in Week 1: Even without Christian McCaffrey on the field, the 49ers’ rushing attack methodically picked apart the Jets’ defense. Jordan Mason carried the load, rushing 28 times for 147 yards and a touchdown. Mason flashed his ability to make defenders miss, too, shaking off the Jets and forcing nine missed tackles while averaging 3.4 yards after contact per attempt.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
- Strength of schedule to date: 6
- Strength of schedule remaining: 21
- Projected win total: 11.4
- % chance of making the playoffs: 83.4%
- % chance of winning the division: 65.4%
- % chance of winning conference: 22.0%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 12.3%
Why the Chiefs won in Week 1: The Chiefs leaned on their passing game, with Patrick Mahomes completing 20 of his 29 pass attempts for 291 yards and a touchdown, earning an 83.0 PFF passing grade. Mahomes and company generated 0.312 expected points added per passing play compared to the Ravens’ -0.001.
Rashee Rice | Week 1
3. Baltimore Ravens
- Strength of schedule to date: 2
- Strength of schedule remaining: 20
- Projected win total: 9.6
- % chance of making the playoffs: 60.2%
- % chance of winning the division: 37.7%
- % chance of winning conference: 10.8%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 5.4%
Why the Ravens lost in Week 1: The Ravens’ offensive line, featuring a host of new faces, struggled to protect Lamar Jackson for large stretches of the game. Jackson was pressured 17 times on 51 total dropbacks and completed 44% of his passes under pressure. Starting tackle Patrick Mekari allowed five pressures, while rookie Roger Rosengarten earned a shaky 31.0 PFF pass-blocking grade.
4. Buffalo Bills
- Strength of schedule to date: 30
- Strength of schedule remaining: 1
- Projected win total: 10.0
- % chance of making the playoffs: 65.1%
- % chance of winning the division: 38.9%
- % chance of winning conference: 11.6%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 5.7%
Why the Bills won in Week 1: After a slow start, Josh Allen turned it on in the second half. The Bills quarterback completed 18 of his 23 passes for 232 yards and scored four total touchdowns, including two rushing touchdowns, on his way to a 75.1 PFF overall grade. Allen was willing to push the ball downfield, too, averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. The Bills’ offense as a whole averaged 6.1 yards per play.
5. Dallas Cowboys
- Strength of schedule to date: 17
- Strength of schedule remaining: 21
- Projected win total: 10.2
- % chance of making the playoffs: 67.0%
- % chance of winning the division: 41.5%
- % chance of winning conference: 12.0%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 5.9%
Why the Cowboys won in Week 1: The pass rush caused havoc, generating 40 total pressures — including seven sacks. Micah Parsons notched 11 pressures, while DeMarcus Lawrence added seven pressures and two sacks. The defense pressured Deshaun Watson on 42.7% of his dropbacks.
6. Detroit Lions
- Strength of schedule to date: 22
- Strength of schedule remaining: 10
- Projected win total: 10.3
- % chance of making the playoffs: 67.8%
- % chance of winning the division: 41.0%
- % chance of winning conference: 12.4%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 6.5%
Why the Lions won in Week 1: The Lions leaned on the ground-and-pound element of their offense when it mattered most, and David Montgomery carried the ball 17 times for 91 yards and a touchdown while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The offense averaged 0.386 expected points added per rushing play.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
- Strength of schedule to date: 15
- Strength of schedule remaining: 32
- Projected win total: 10.5
- % chance of making the playoffs: 72.7%
- % chance of winning the division: 45.5%
- % chance of winning conference: 13.0%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 6.8%
Why the Eagles won in Week 1: The Eagles’ top two receivers, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, were the stars in Brazil, combining for 12 catches, 203 yards and a touchdown on 17 targets. Smith earned an 84.0 PFF receiving grade, while Brown earned an 81.3 PFF receiving grade. The duo converted 10 of their catches for first downs. Having elite receivers paid off.
8. Miami Dolphins
- Strength of schedule to date: 26
- Strength of schedule remaining: 16
- Projected win total: 9.7
- % chance of making the playoffs: 61.0%
- % chance of winning the division: 32.5%
- % chance of winning conference: 8.8%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.0%
Why the Dolphins won in Week 1: The passing game carried the load for the Dolphins, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 338 yards and one touchdown and earning a 72.3 PFF passing grade. The Dolphins’ wealth of speed made the difference, with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Devon Achane combining for 315 of the offense’s receiving yards — and 240 came after the catch.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
- Strength of schedule to date: 27
- Strength of schedule remaining: 14
- Projected win total: 8.9
- % chance of making the playoffs: 47.4%
- % chance of winning the division: 25.7%
- % chance of winning conference: 6.7%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.3%
Why the Bengals lost in Week 1: Self-inflicted wounds cost the Bengals. They turned the ball over twice due to lost fumbles from Tanner Hudson and Charlie Jones, and two dropped passes from Zack Moss slowed down drives, as well. It’s hard to combat mistakes when you play against a team that made few.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Strength of schedule to date: 18
- Strength of schedule remaining: 8
- Projected win total: 8.9
- % chance of making the playoffs: 46.3%
- % chance of winning the division: 24.4%
- % chance of winning conference: 5.7%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.7%
Why the Steelers won in Week 1: The Steelers’ defense made life difficult for Kirk Cousins, who struggled in his Falcons debut. Cousins was sacked only twice but was pressured 16 times throughout the day and on 42.4% of his dropbacks. All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt led the way with five pressures and a sack.
11. Houston Texans
- Strength of schedule to date: 16
- Strength of schedule remaining: 4
- Projected win total: 9.3
- % chance of making the playoffs: 60.1%
- % chance of winning the division: 46.3%
- % chance of winning conference: 8.3%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.9%
Why the Texans won in Week 1: The Texans’ new-look ground game showed off against the Colts, with Joe Mixon rushing for 159 yards and a touchdown on a 5.1-yard clip in his season debut, while the entire team racked up 213 rushing yards. The Texans’ ability to break off big runs was key, as they recorded six explosive running plays.
12. Green Bay Packers
- Strength of schedule to date: 7
- Strength of schedule remaining: 15
- Projected win total: 8.3
- % chance of making the playoffs: 39.4%
- % chance of winning the division: 18.1%
- % chance of winning conference: 3.2%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.6%
Why the Packers lost in Week 1: The Packers struggled to consistently move the ball through the air and convert in big spots despite racking up big yardage. Jordan Love completed just 50% of his passes, and the Packers converted on just 27% of their third downs and 25% of their red-zone drives.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Strength of schedule to date: 31
- Strength of schedule remaining: 7
- Projected win total: 8.6
- % chance of making the playoffs: 47.1%
- % chance of winning the division: 32.2%
- % chance of winning conference: 5.3%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.6%
Why the Buccaneers won in Week 1: Baker Mayfield was excellent against the Commanders in Week 1, completing 24 of his 30 passes for four touchdowns. Mayfield was kept clean on 67.6% of his dropbacks and went 20-of-23 for 230 yards and three touchdowns on such plays. His 81.7 PFF passing grade ranked fourth in the NFL in Week 1.
14. New Orleans Saints
- Strength of schedule to date: 32
- Strength of schedule remaining: 31
- Projected win total: 8.9
- % chance of making the playoffs: 49.3%
- % chance of winning the division: 34.3%
- % chance of winning conference: 4.8%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.3%
Why the Saints won in Week 1: Derek Carr was efficient in the season opener, earning an 88.7 PFF passing grade after completing 19 of his 23 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns, but the Saints beat up the Panthers all over the field. The offense rushed for just under 200 yards and averaged 6.1 yards per play. The Panthers were humbled.
15. Minnesota Vikings
- Strength of schedule to date: 23
- Strength of schedule remaining: 17
- Projected win total: 8.5
- % chance of making the playoffs: 41.7%
- % chance of winning the division: 17.7%
- % chance of winning conference: 4.4%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.9%
Why the Vikings won in Week 1: The Vikings relied on the surprising efficiency of Sam Darnold in his Vikings debut. Darnold went 19-for-24 for 208 passing yards and two touchdowns while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. He thrived from a clean pocket, completing 14 of his 15 passes for 154 yards.
16. Chicago Bears
- Strength of schedule to date: 29
- Strength of schedule remaining: 23
- Projected win total: 9.1
- % chance of making the playoffs: 48.7%
- % chance of winning the division: 23.2%
- % chance of winning conference: 6.1%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.0%
Why the Bears won in Week 1: The Bears managed to turn the game around after going down 17-3 at the half without scoring an offensive touchdown, but it was the defense and special teams that turned up with a touchdown apiece. A Tyrique Stevenson pick-six was the difference, and Cairo Santos nailed all three of his field goals to aid the Bears’ struggling offense.
17. Seattle Seahawks
- Strength of schedule to date: 28
- Strength of schedule remaining: 6
- Projected win total: 8.5
- % chance of making the playoffs: 40.9%
- % chance of winning the division: 17.5%
- % chance of winning conference: 4.5%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.2%
Why the Seahawks won in Week 1: Seattle showed a more run-inspired side to them in Week 1. Kenneth Walker rushed 20 times for 102 yards and a touchdown while averaging 5.2 yards per attempt and 3.35 yards after contact per attempt. Only Rhamondre Stevenson forced more missed tackles (10) than Walker (eight) in Week 1.
Most Forced Missed Tackles | Week 1, RBs
18. Los Angeles Rams
- Strength of schedule to date: 4
- Strength of schedule remaining: 5
- Projected win total: 8.0
- % chance of making the playoffs: 34.6%
- % chance of winning the division: 14.7%
- % chance of winning conference: 4.1%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.1%
Why the Rams lost in Week 1: Stafford put in an excellent performance against the Lions, but the Rams’ offensive line made life significantly harder. A.J. Arcuri, Joe Noteboom and Warren McClendon Jr. allowed 16 pressures between them, while Arcuri and Noteboom both recorded pass-blocking grades below 10.0. Stafford’s lone interception came in a pressured pocket.
19. Los Angeles Chargers
- Strength of schedule to date: 25
- Strength of schedule remaining: 17
- Projected win total: 9.0
- % chance of making the playoffs: 49.2%
- % chance of winning the division: 22.1%
- % chance of winning conference: 4.9%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.2%
Why the Chargers won in Week 1: The Raiders’ offense won’t be the toughest unit the Chargers defense faces all season, but the pass rush went off. The defense generated 22 total pressures, and Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Morgan Fox combined for four sacks. In total, 11 Chargers produced a quarterback pressure.
20. New York Jets
- Strength of schedule to date: 1
- Strength of schedule remaining: 28
- Projected win total: 8.5
- % chance of making the playoffs: 43.0%
- % chance of winning the division: 18.9%
- % chance of winning conference: 5.1%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.2%
Why the Jets lost in Week 1: Mistakes cost the Jets in big spots. Breece Hall fumbled early in the game, and while that only led to a Niners field goal, it was a possession wasted. A Rodgers interception was converted into a field goal in the third quarter, too. And on top of that, the Jets’ receivers dropped two passes.
21. Indianapolis Colts
- Strength of schedule to date: 20
- Strength of schedule remaining: 27
- Projected win total: 7.6
- % chance of making the playoffs: 31.7%
- % chance of winning the division: 18.1%
- % chance of winning conference: 2.9%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.1%
Why the Colts lost in Week 1: Anthony Richardson showed why he’s one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the NFL, with nine completions for 212 yards. Still, the Colts averaged just -0.163 expected points added per passing play as Richardson struggled in the short passing game. Having a big arm and the ability to stretch the field is excellent, but it can’t be solely relied on.
22. Las Vegas Raiders
- Strength of schedule to date: 14
- Strength of schedule remaining: 9
- Projected win total: 7.0
- % chance of making the playoffs: 21.9%
- % chance of winning the division: 6.7%
- % chance of winning conference: 1.8%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.9%
Why the Raiders lost in Week 1: Gardner Minshew was surprisingly impactful, but the Raiders couldn’t marry the passing game with a consistent rushing attack. The running back duo of Zamir White and Alexander Mattison rushed 18 times for 65 yards, both earning sub-55.0 PFF rushing grades and failing to eclipse 4.0 yards per attempt.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Strength of schedule to date: 5
- Strength of schedule remaining: 25
- Projected win total: 7.7
- % chance of making the playoffs: 34.6%
- % chance of winning the division: 22.5%
- % chance of winning conference: 3.6%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.5%
Why the Jaguars lost in Week 1: Lawrence and the Jaguars struggled to move the ball consistently against a tough Dolphins defense. The former No. 1 pick completed just 12 passes and failed to push the ball downfield in the second half. The Jaguars’ running game generated just -0.376 expected points added per play, with Travis Etienne fumbling at the goal line.
24. Cleveland Browns
- Strength of schedule to date: 9
- Strength of schedule remaining: 2
- Projected win total: 7.3
- % chance of making the playoffs: 27.7%
- % chance of winning the division: 12.2%
- % chance of winning conference: 2.8%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.1%
Why the Browns lost in Week 1: The Watson experiment has been an abject failure, and though we’re just one game in, the end could be in sight. Watson went 24-of-45 passing for 169 yards, averaging just 3.8 yards per pass attempt — the third-lowest clip among all starting quarterbacks in Week 1. Things were worse when Watson was pressured, as he completed just 33% of his pass attempts.
25. New England Patriots
- Strength of schedule to date: 8
- Strength of schedule remaining: 12
- Projected win total: 7.4
- % chance of making the playoffs: 27.8%
- % chance of winning the division: 9.8%
- % chance of winning conference: 2.0%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.9%
Why the Patriots won in Week 1: The Patriots’ defense kept the Bengals’ passing game in check, as just 30% of Joe Burrow’s pass attempts were thrown beyond the sticks. The Bengals had a single explosive passing play in the game. New England edge rusher Keion White also earned a 90.8 PFF overall grade after recording three sacks.
26. Atlanta Falcons
- Strength of schedule to date: 18
- Strength of schedule remaining: 30
- Projected win total: 8.1
- % chance of making the playoffs: 40.4%
- % chance of winning the division: 25.7%
- % chance of winning conference: 4.3%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.0%
Why the Falcons lost in Week 1: Despite all of the offensive talent, the Falcons were allergic to offense. They averaged -0.369 expected points added per play and 4.4 yards per play as Cousins earned a 42.1 PFF overall grade after throwing two interceptions.
27. Denver Broncos
- Strength of schedule to date: 13
- Strength of schedule remaining: 11
- Projected win total: 6.6
- % chance of making the playoffs: 18.4%
- % chance of winning the division: 5.8%
- % chance of winning conference: 1.5%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.6%
Why the Broncos lost in Week 1: There were reasons to be impressed by Bo Nix, who showed an ability to move around the pocket and out on the run, but the Broncos’ passing offense was largely anemic. Nix completed 26 of his 42 pass attempts for 138 yards and averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt. His 41.8 PFF passing grade ranked 25th out of 30 quarterbacks in Week 1.
28. Tennessee Titans
- Strength of schedule to date: 12
- Strength of schedule remaining: 24
- Projected win total: 6.7
- % chance of making the playoffs: 22.3%
- % chance of winning the division: 13.1%
- % chance of winning conference: 1.8%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.8%
Why the Titans lost in Week 1: The entire Titans passing game struggled to make anything happen. The offensive line allowed 16 pressures, while Will Levis earned a 29.9 PFF passing grade after completing 19 passes for just 127 yards. The pick-six was a killer, but the Titans averaged just 4.0 yards per play.
29. Arizona Cardinals
- Strength of schedule to date: 3
- Strength of schedule remaining: 13
- Projected win total: 6.9
- % chance of making the playoffs: 21.8%
- % chance of winning the division: 7.6%
- % chance of winning conference: 1.9%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.8%
Why the Cardinals lost in Week 1: Kyler Murray was sacked four times and pressured 17 times in the loss, with Greg Rousseau and Von Miller combining for nine pressures. Despite being able to create with his legs when pressured, Murray wasn’t afforded much time to maneuver, with the Cardinals quarterback averaging 5.2 yards per attempt and throwing for just 162 yards.
30. New York Giants
- Strength of schedule to date: 21
- Strength of schedule remaining: 19
- Projected win total: 6.5
- % chance of making the playoffs: 17.0%
- % chance of winning the division: 6.6%
- % chance of winning conference: 1.2%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.5%
Why the Giants lost in Week 1: Daniel Jones was under duress constantly, completing only five of his 15 passes when pressured and averaging 1.8 yards per attempt. Even when Jones was able to make a play, the Giants dropped five passes.
31. Washington Commanders
- Strength of schedule to date: 10
- Strength of schedule remaining: 29
- Projected win total: 6.6
- % chance of making the playoffs: 18.3%
- % chance of winning the division: 6.5%
- % chance of winning conference: 1.2%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.5%
Why the Commanders lost in Week 1: The Commanders’ secondary struggled in coverage all day as Mayfield spliced them up, allowing 11.7 yards per completion. Eight defenders earned a sub-60.0 PFF coverage grade.
32. Carolina Panthers
- Strength of schedule to date: 11
- Strength of schedule remaining: 26
- Projected win total: 6.1
- % chance of making the playoffs: 14.1%
- % chance of winning the division: 7.9%
- % chance of winning conference: 1.0%
- % chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.4%
Why the Panthers lost in Week 1: Problems existed all over the field for the Panthers, but mostly on offense. Bryce Young earned a 34.7 PFF passing grade while completing 13 of his 30 passes for 161 yards and throwing two interceptions. He was pressured 10 times by a Saints defense that was hungry to impress, sacking Young four times.