By Eric Edholm
And just like that, we’re left with eight.
It’s officially offseason for three quarters of the NFL, including six teams that were freshly dispatched over Wild Card Weekend. I’ll take a peek at what’s next for those half-dozen organizations, with a few really interesting quarterback situations among the topics of conversation.
But the real meat and potatoes is the upcoming Divisional Round. Pound for pound, this is the best football weekend, I say. And after five of the six wild-card games were decided by two or more scores, getting four bangers in this round would really hit the spot.
On paper, the matchups look pretty terrific, simmering to a full-on boil by Sunday night.
The Texans kick off the weekend, coming off their best showing in at least a month. Can they go back to Arrowhead and catch the Chiefs sluggish off their extended break?
Commanders-Lions is our Saturday night special, as fascinating of a matchup as you could hope for at this stage. Jayden Daniels vs. the injury-riddled-yet-resilient Lions defense.
The fearless, fighting Rams will be flying into Philadelphia on emotion, having just taken out the 14-win Vikings with relative ease. Are the Eagles on upset watch in Sunday’s opener?
Capping it all off is the presumed centerpiece of the weekend: Ravens at Bills. You know the storylines, headlined by arguably the two most dangerous quarterbacks in the NFL right now. It just feels like a true toss-up game, so much so that I bumped the Ravens up in these rankings, putting them right on the Bills’ heels. Had Buffalo not rallied after an opening haymaker by Denver to ultimately blow out the Broncos, I probably would have jumped the Ravens ahead of the Bills. Sunday night will determine whether I made the right call or not. The way Baltimore is playing, I’m prepared to look bad.
NOTE: Up/down arrows reflect movement from the Wild Card Weekend Power Rankings.
Rank
1
15-2
The Chiefs will be plenty rested heading into their Divisional Round matchup with the Texans, a team they just prepared for not too long ago. In fact, several Chiefs starters played that Week 16 game against Houston, faced the Steelers four days later on Christmas and then have been off since. RB Isiah Pacheco and RT Jawaan Taylor should be good to go. DT Chris Jones, who last played in Week 16, should be back. Even CB Jaylen Watson, who has been out since Week 7, might be on track to be activated for the game. Patrick Mahomes had his best performance of the season vs. Houston, but that same Texans defense is fresh off a four-pick effort against Justin Herbert. If Kansas City’s pass protection is in sync, it’s going to take a heroic effort from C.J. Stroud and Co. to pull off the upset. Mahomes is 6-0 in the Divisional Round and has a chance to make his seventh AFC Championship Game before turning 30.
Rank
2
15-2
Now the anxiety sets in. Last January, the Lions were playing with house money. They were the NFL’s darlings, rolling on pure momentum and emotion, earning new fans by the minute. Now, they’re expected to win, even with a frightening young Commanders team coming to town this week. In just one year’s time, both these teams’ roles have flipped completely — it’s just the temperamental nature of this league. But with both Lions coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, earning head-coaching interviews, Dan Campbell has to know that the time to win a title with his core group in place is NOW. Campbell has expressed optimism that RB David Montgomery can play, and the vibes seem to be improving with CB Terrion Arnold and RG Kevin Zeitler, too. Those might be all the reinforcements the Lions receive, however, and that defense will have its hands full defending Jayden Daniels. Just another stiff test for the D everyone loves to doubt.
Rank
3
14-4
The Bills quickly fell behind 7-0 to the Broncos, and the worry meter went up a notch or two, as questions about the viability of Buffalo’s defense had been rising prior to the playoffs. But the offense found its groove, patiently sticking with the run game early and getting Josh Allen some more favorable looks. It’s not often you see a team throw more with the lead and control of the game, but this is the trust level Allen has earned this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense promptly tightened up after Denver’s opening touchdown, forcing seven straight empty possessions to close out the game. This Sunday presents an entirely different challenge in the Ravens. Baltimore scored touchdowns on its first three possessions against Buffalo in Week 4 and took advantage of the Bills’ second-half mistakes to put that game away. Sean McDermott’s defense can’t let Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry get rolling early, or the Bills might lose at home for the third straight year in the Divisional Round.
Get ready for Ravens-Bills | Divisional Playoff
Rank
4
1
13-5
Remember all those defensive issues? I sure don’t. The Ravens were viewed with suspicion as true contenders earlier in the season, with Baltimore’s defense most often cited as the reason this team would come up short again. All that’s happened over the past eight games is that Baltimore has allowed opponents an average of 264 yards per game — compared to the 367.9-yard average allowed in the first 10 games. Credit to first-year coordinator Zachary Orr; it’s hard to shave off 100-plus yards per game. The Ravens’ offense is still humming at an elite level, as you’d expect from a unit featuring Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Baltimore ran for 164 yards in the first half against Pittsburgh, 135 in the second. This Ravens team is absolutely capable of a title run the way it’s playing now.
Rank
5
1
15-3
The Packers spent much of this past Sunday doing everything possible to hand the game to the Eagles, turning the ball over four times (including on the first play of the game) and missing a chip-shot field-goal try, while additionally suffering injuries left and right. Yet Philadelphia only held a six-point lead early in the fourth quarter. Dallas Goedert gave the offense some juice with his double-stiff-arm touchdown, but offensive penalties really bogged the Eagles down. Jalen Hurts also took a few bad sacks and missed some throws, including one on the clever play-action fake out of the “Tush Push” formation. A.J. Brown was even getting in some light reading on the bench. It was just an underwhelming performance offensively, but the defense mostly dominated. The last time the Eagles and Rams met, it was the Saquon Barkley show — 302 total yards with two long-bomb touchdown runs. Philly might need another heroic display from the All-Pro back to fend off this feisty L.A. team on Sunday.
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